Volume 12, Number 22, December 2022

Historical Dynamic Modeling (Simulation Experience)

  Authors

Olegs Carkovs, dr. oec, Baltic Information Security Centre, Latvia

  Abstract

The present work "synchronizes" the achievements in various fields of natural science (mathematics, cybernetics, information theory, sociology, economics and history) to understand the modern picture of the world. The conceptual model proposed in the paper is simplified and serves to illustrate certain socioeconomic processes of the past and present. Undoubtedly, there is a "confirmation bias", since there is an element of subjectivism in every analysis. It can only be overcome by constructive criticism, not by ignoring facts, rejecting mathematical proofs and denying logical conclusions, for "Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored" ( Aldous Huxley).

  Keywords

History, social-economic model, mathematical simulation, optimization, development, strategy, equilibrium, non-stability, bifurcation, chaos, attractor, closed and open systems, system’s theory, elite, society, community, sociology