Volume 9, Number 18, December 2019

Heuristic Reasoning and the Application of the Concept of Fuzzy Decision Variables in the Quantitative Risk Analysis of Construction Projects in Nigeria

  Authors

Ibrahim Yakubu, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa University, Nigeria

  Abstract

The study has utilized heuristic reasoning and the concept of Fuzzy Decision Variables in order to undertake the risk analysis of a proposed construction project in a selected domain The objectives included determining the sources of risks, obtaining the Fuzzy Decision Variables by deductive reasoning, identifying the types of risks prevailing in the project and the utilization of fuzzy set analysis in order to estimate the possible magnitudes of the risks. Five completed projects were analysed. For each project , a breakdown of the final contract sum into variations, remeasurement of provisional quantities, nominated subcontractors’ accounts, nominated suppliers’ accounts, loss and expense caused by disturbances of regular progress of the works, fluctuation in rates of labour and prices of materials was undertaken in order to derive the sources of risks, the Fuzzy Decision Variables and the subsequent risks. Fuzzy set analysis was used to calculate the possible magnitudes of the risks. Heuristic reasoning and fuzzy set analysis could be used in a composite framework to undertake the risk analysis of a proposed project in a selected domain.

  Keywords

Heuristic reasoning, Fuzzy Decision Variables, risk and fuzzy set analysis

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