Volume 10, Number 4
Data Mining for Integration and Verification of Socio-Geographical Trend Statements
in the Context of Conflict
Risk
Authors
Vera Kamp, Jean-Pierre Knust, Reinhard Moratz, Kevin Stehn and Soeren Stoehrmann, data42 GmbH, University of Muenster, Germany
Abstract
Data mining enables an innovative, largely automatic meta-analysis of the relationship between political and economic geography analyses of crisis regions. As an example, the
two approaches Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI) and Fragile States Index (FSI) can be related to each other. The GCRI is a quantitative conflict risk assessment based on open source
data and a statistical regression method developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The FSI is based on a conflict assessment framework developed by The
Fund for Peace in Washington, DC. In contrast to the quantitative GCRI, the FSI is essentially
focused on qualitative data from systematic interviews with experts.
Both approaches therefore have closely related objectives, but very different methodologies
and data sources. It is therefore hoped that the two complementary approaches can be combined to form an even more meaningful meta-analysis, or that contradictions can be discovered, or that a validation of the approaches can be obtained if there are similarities. We propose
an approach to automatic meta-analysis that makes use of machine learning (data mining).
Such a procedure represents a novel approach in the meta-analysis of conflict risk analyses.